A Mosquito's Deadly Bite

By: Andrea G. Gloria

Figure 1. Projected data of environmental suitability for dengue in 2020 (a), 2050 (b) and 2080 (c). At-risk area changes can be seen in d-f. Figure taken from Messina et al. (2019).

Dengue, a deadly mosquito-borne viral infection, has caused 10,000 deaths and 100 million infections per year in over 125 countries (Messina et al., 2019). This infection may be transmitted by the Aedes mosquito species, which resides in tropical and sub-tropical urban areas. Due to climate change and an increase in temperatures, dengue has become a global concern. It is believed that the areas already affected will see increased vector survival, faster viral amplification, and an increase in reproduction and biting rates. A study carried out by Messina and colleagues utilized statistical mapping techniques to predict global environmental suitability for the virus. In order to predict future risks, they projected future changes of climate, population, environmental and socioeconomic covariates for 2020, 2050 and 2080. As seen in Figure 2, it is predicted that areas that are not affected, such as southeastern USA, China and Japan are likely to become a suitable location for Aedes which will lead to dengue risk. Mexico, Argentina and Australia’s dengue risk is likely to increase. While Africa’s risk escalates drastically. The evidence provided by this article shows that it is extremely important to prioritize and prepare for the health risk of dengue.

Original Article:
Messina JP, Brady OJ, Golding N, Kraemer M, William Wint GR, Ray S, Pigott D, Shearer F, Johnson K, Earl L, Marczak L, Shirude S, Davis N, Gilbert M, Velayudhan R, Jones P, Jaenisch T, Scott T, Reiner R, Hay S. (2019). The current and future global distribution and population at risk of dengue. Nature Microbiology 4:1508-1515.